Jensen Huang Resigns: Will Nvidia's Troubles Only Become Clear by 2028?
Ming-Chi Kuo breaks the impact of Jensen Huang's resignation into five points: the short-term stock price may have already priced in the bad news, Google TPU may benefit, the succession impact will first show by 2028, the supply chain should watch capacity pre-orders and spec upgrades, and Chinese demand will not disappear because of export controls.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo listed five key judgments on X following Jensen Huang's resignation. The discussion focuses on the scope of impact and does not address the reasons for the resignation.
He looks at the short-term market and long-term competitiveness separately.
1. Short-term market may have priced in the bad news
According to Kuo, Huang has completely severed ties with Nvidia. The congressional summons and subsequent investigation will have less impact on Nvidia's stock price. Before the investigation results come out, it is too early to judge how Huang's next steps will affect Nvidia.
2. Google TPU may be the biggest beneficiary
With succession uncertainty at Nvidia, Google TPU has an opportunity to gain more trust from customers and the supply chain. TPU is Google's in-house AI accelerator chip. Kuo named MediaTek and Broadcom as short-term market focuses.
3. Succession impact will first show by 2028 at the earliest
CFO Colette Kress is now interim CEO. The formal CEO transition and the organizational changes it brings will not affect Nvidia's product development and competitiveness until 2028 at the earliest.
4. Supply chain checks focus on two things
Huang's product strategy put pressure on the supply chain, concentrated in capacity pre-orders and spec upgrades. Next, watch whether there are changes in the supply chain's capacity expansion and new technology development. Kuo believes these are one of the core reasons Nvidia's supply chain commands a high P/E ratio.
5. Chinese demand and export controls
Kuo judges that the revenue share of Nvidia AI chips ultimately flowing to Chinese buyers may be higher than the company officially discloses. Investors worry that after the U.S. tightens export controls, Nvidia's revenue will drop sharply. His view is that Chinese end demand will not disappear because of export controls. As long as overseas resale channels exist, Chinese buyers may be willing to pay several times the price premium to obtain Nvidia chips or racks through indirect routes.
There is a disagreement in the comments worth noting. User jakedu said points one and two are contradictory: if Huang's departure has no impact on Nvidia, then it is impossible for it to be a positive for TPU. Kuo responded that he never said there was no impact on Nvidia; he said the stock market may have priced in the bad news in the short term. The difference between the two statements is the time scale.
Next, keep an eye on three verifiable things: the investigation results, whether there are changes in the supply chain's capacity pre-orders and spec upgrades, and whether TPU's customer trust can turn into orders. The original tweet is here: link.
发布时间: 2026-11-13 01:25